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Tuesday, June 14th forecast and routing from
Chris Parker
I
don't know if you have left Bermuda yet. I do think this
is a good time to leave Bermuda. Assuming you leave
tomorrow, Wed14, here's your forecast.
Discussion...Atlantic RIDGE is persistent, and will
build W-ward in the next week, to lie near 40N/45W.
Remnants of TS Alberto and 1 or 2 additional LOs will be
"blocked" by this RIDGE. Weather will be perfect for
sailing if you are reasonably-close to the W-NW-N
periphery of RIDGE...close-enough to enjoy the pleasant,
settled weather, but not so close that you have no wind.
Problem with sailing more to the NNE-NE initially to get
to 40N soon is Alberto's remnants will likely pull a
very strong TROF with strong, gusty winds & squalls well
past Bermuda by the weekend, and you could run into GALE
Force winds if this TROF catches you...it will be moving
fast.
Another problem is there's already a lingering TROF NE
of Bermuda, and if you're NE of Bermuda before Fri16,
you'll find squalls & stronger S-SW winds near that TROF.
So...I believe the optimal routing solution will be an
"S" shaped course...start by sailing either
due-East...or...about 070-degrees, directly for Bermuda,
in nice-steady SW winds. At some point well before you
get to the RIDGE next week, turn and sail NNE, about
030-degrees, riding up & over the top of RIDGE as it's
building W-ward.
How far N you go will depend on how much fuel you have /
how much you want to motor, versus how fast you want to
get there. RIDGE is likely to cause very light winds for
several hundred miles near 40N...you'll probably have to
go to 42N to stay in enough wind to sail...then, once E
of the center of RIDGE, you can come back down to 40N.
OR...you can just motor through the light winds along
40N if you have sufficient fuel, and don't mind doing
that.
My suggestion is to sail due-East from Bermuda, as winds
near TROF trailing from Alberto's remnants will build
rapidly the farther N you lie.
Forecast:
Wed14, 8am, near Bermuda: 200@14. Showers & squalls lie
within 100-200 mi N of Bermuda, but probably none if you
sail ENE on a rhumb line for Azores, about 070T. Seas
3-4'/6-sec from W, also 2-3' wind chop from SSW.
Wed14, 8pm, near 32N / 63W: 200@10. Seas same.
Thu15, 8am, near 32N / 62W: 180@17. Winds building due
to tighter pressure gradient between RIDGE and Alberto's
remanants. Seas 4'/4-sec from S.
Thu15, 8pm, near 32N / 61W: 190@18. Begin sailing ENE,
about 070T. Seas 5'/6-sec from SSE.
Fri16, 8am, near 32-30N / 59-30W: 170@20. Seas 7'/10-sec
from W, also 5'/8-sec from SE, also 5' wind chop from S.
Fri16, 8pm, near 33N / 58-30W: 170@19. Seas same, except
the SE swells are ESE.
Sat17, 8am, near 33-30N / 57W: 160@20. Scattered showers
& a few squalls. Numerous strong squalls 100 mi W of
you. Begin sailing NE, about 035T. Seas 8'/10-sec from
W, also 4' wind chop from S and some residual ESE swell.
Sat17, 8pm, near 34-30 / 56W: 160@18, scattered showers
& a few squalls. Seas 6'/9-sec from W, also 4' wind chop
from S, and some residual ESE swell.
Sun18, 8am, near 36N / 54-30W: 170@18. Seas...gradually
moderating.
Sun18, 8pm, near 37N / 53W: 150@13.
Mon19, 8am, near 38N / 52W: 170@12.
Mon19, 8pm, near 39N / 50-30W: 170@12.
Tue20, 8am, near 40N / 49W: S becoming W, under 10 kts.
Suggest you sail to about 42N / 46W, then turn E, and
hopefully find 10-15 kts from W. As soon as winds become
steady from the NW then N, you'll know you're E of
center of RIDGE, and can turn ESE for 40N.
As for current...there's a strong clockwise roating eddy
centered near 38N/56W, which you REALLY want to avoid.
You do NOT want to lie N of 37N between 57W to 53W. My
routing above has you passing thru 37N at 53W...so you
do NOT want to pass NW of that point...you can be E of
53W as you pass thru 37N.
Along this routing, current is mostly favorable. You do
hit a few areas of unfavorable current, but it's
relatively-brief, and the routing based on weather is so
good, I don't recommend chasing the little areas of
current.
In general...it will NOT hurt you if you sail faster
than the above routing. However, if you sail slower, the
TROF trailing from Alberto's remnants may catch you, and
the RIDGE may shift W, causing your winds to die...so a
slower passage might require slightly different tactics.
When you want another Update, please email me in the
morning with your position, conditions, and plans, and
I'll respond with a forecast in the
afternoon...cheers...Chris.
Many thanks to our
friend Craig Homenko for his assistance in setting up
the website.
We also would like
to thank our buddy Scott Brunner who has been kind
enough to host the website on his server.
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